Top NHL picks for today (support Alberta teams on the road Thursday, April 7)

We went 1-1-1 with my picks last night, but the only win was a +240 underdog because I correctly pointed out that the Red Wings were extremely poorly rated in their game against the Jets.

The dog’s big win gave us a 1.4 unit boost to our bankroll last night, so let’s keep the momentum going tonight. Here are my top three bets for Thursday, April 7.

All quoted odds are via WynnBET Sports Betting.

Prediction and choice of the Maple Leafs against the Stars

Betting on an UNDER in games involving the Maple Leafs seems completely ridiculous, but if there ever was a time for one to strike, it’s tonight against the Stars.

Toronto is actually one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, ranking third in expected goals in its last 25 games. The Leafs’ problems stem from their goalie, but they now face a Stars team that ranks 25th in the NHL in shooting percentage over their last 25 games. If there ever was a time for a Toronto goaltender to play well, it’s tonight.

Getting over-money on an UNDER at 6.5 seems like a good bet to me.

Choose: LESS THAN (+115)

Prediction and selection of flames against sharks

I know the Flames are on the rematch of a rematch in the middle of a trip to California, but I don’t care. They outplay the Sharks by such a wide margin that they could play shorthanded all game and still give them a hard time.

The Sharks rank bottom in the NHL in nearly every advanced metric over their last 25 games. 31st in CORSI%, 32nd in expected goals per 60 minutes, 23rd in expected goals against 60 minutes and 30th in shooting percentage.

The fact that we can get +125 on the Flames puck line tonight is a gift we shouldn’t pass up.

Choose: Flames -1.5 (+125)

Oilers vs Kings prediction and pick

While I think the Kings are underrated, they struggle in a few key areas that worry me against a team that has such a powerful offense as the Oilers. Los Angeles ranks 31st in shooting percentage and 19th in team save percentage over its last 25 games. It’s hard to win when you’re struggling to find the back of the net, regardless of your advanced analytics ranking.

It’ll be especially tough when you’re trying to keep pace with the Edmonton Oilers, who rank second in the NHL in the same streak in expected goals per 60 minutes. The Oilers were also accurate in their shooting, ranking fifth in shooting percentage.

Even in advanced analytics like CORSI percentage, the Kings only rank six spots higher than the Oilers, which isn’t enough to offset basic stats like shooting and save percentage.

Choose: Greasers -135

You can follow Iain’s bets at Stamp bet here.

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