NHL pick for Game 3 Rangers vs. Penguins

Evgeni Malkin #71 of the Pittsburgh Penguins slows down Kaapo Kakko #24 of the New York Rangers in Game 2 of the first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden on May 05, 2022 in New York City. Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images via AFP.

All tied to one game apiece, the New York Rangers will look to regain home ice advantage on Saturday when they travel to Steel City to face the Pittsburgh Penguins. Read on for our Rangers-Penguins picks.

The Pittsburgh Penguins drew first blood, coming off a grueling marathon in triple overtime with a 4-3 victory in Game 1. Evgeni Malkin scored the OT winner, and third-string guard Louis Domingue entered the game midway through the second overtime period, stopping 17 shots to claim the victory.

Undaunted, the New York Rangers came back strong two nights later, tying the series with a 5-2 win. Artemi Panarin had a goal and two assists, while Vézina favorite Igor Shesterkin secured the victory by stopping 39 shots. With the series tied at one, Game 3 on Saturday is crucial.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s Game 3 between the Rangers and Penguins (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-5 star scale).

Rangers vs. Penguins game information

Date hour : Saturday, May 7, 7 p.m. ET
TV: Radio-Canada, Sportsnet, TNT, TVAS, MSG, SportsNet PT
Location: PPG Arena, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Rangers vs. Penguins Odds Analysis

Rangers opened as -123 favorites, and that line moved to -120 despite being 83% in the money back to them. A live dog playing house, the Penguins can be caught up to +100 at DraftKings.

The objective total is set at 6, with the highest paying +100, while the lowest will net you -122. I’m a little surprised the total hasn’t been pushed to 6.5 considering the previous two games hit the 7-goal plateau.

Rangers pick vs. Penguins

  • Rangers (-120 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Over 6 goals (+100 via DraftKings) ★★★★
  • Jake Guentzel Over 3.5 hits (+108 via FanDuel) ★★★★

SEE ALSO: Saturday’s best NHL bets

Rangers vs. Penguins Predictions

Rangers (-120)

At first glance, it might seem like a good idea to support the Penguins at home. Pittsburgh has controlled possession with a 57.73 Corsi percentage in this series. They were also the top team in terms of expected goals for, expected goals against and xGF percentage. With those great underlying numbers, you’d expect the Penguins to finally break out with a dominating performance. Unfortunately, there is too much uncertainty between the pipes.

With starting goaltender Tristan Jarry still not skating after breaking his foot and backup Casey DeSmith himself suffering from a lower-body injury, the Penguins are counting on Louis Domingue to see them through. Domingue acquitted himself well when he was forced into action in Game 1. However, he fell back to earth in Game 2, allowing five goals on 40 shots.

Meanwhile, there is no uncertainty in the Rangers crease. Shesterkin has stopped 118 of 124 shots in two games, with a stunning .952 save percentage, 2.17 goals-against average and playoff leading 2.66 goals saved above the average at 5-for-5 .

Shesterkin will once again make the difference and the Rangers will regain home ice advantage.

Over 6 goals (+100)

The Rangers and Penguins have combined 7 goals in each of the first two games, and they’ll do it again on Saturday. Rangers struggled to suppress shots, but it didn’t seriously burn them with Shesterkin standing. Unfortunately for the Penguins, they don’t have a Vezina-caliber goaltender to fall back on, so their lackluster shot suppression could have disastrous consequences.

I expect we’ll see another shooting range with both teams making ridiculous shot totals and 7 of them finding the back of the net.

Jake Guentzel Over 3.5 shots (+108)

The Penguins’ leading scorer in the regular season with 40 goals, Guentzel continued to light the lamp in the playoffs. In two games, the 27-year-old winger has three goals and 14 shots, good for a ridiculous average of seven shots per game.

Yes, one of those games went to triple overtime. But he exploded for six shots in Game 2, and it was a standard 60-minute affair.

Guentzel will continue his hot streak on Saturday, tossing at least four pucks on goal.

Where to bet on Rangers-Penguins picks

Here are our top rated sports betting:

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Rangers-Penguins picks made on 05/07/2022 at 7:51 a.m. ET.

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