NFL betting 2022: Live Dogs will face the silver line in week 2 | NFL and NCAA betting picks

Bet the Jaguars ML against the Colts (+165 BetMGM): The Colts were dominated by the bottom-feeding Texans, while the Jags showed signs, albeit in a loss to Washington, of coming out of the basement.

Bet the Chargers ML to the Chiefs (+165 PointsBet): We trust the pre-season line more than its Week 2 move after the Bolts finished in the EPA top 10 in a 24-19 win over the Raiders.

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Estimated reading time: 3 min


Week 2 is a unique moment in the season, when we only have a small sample of data to balance with our previous pre-season. But by going through some of the data, we can begin to see what change has already been priced in and what has a signal for the future.

Remember, KC was the heavy favorite in Week 1: The Chiefs were undoubtedly dominant in the Week 1 win over Arizona, but they became a heavy favorite and needed to score a ton of points and win easily. In other words, this dominating performance was certainly within the range of results, and we’re not sure much has changed from our offseason precedents.

· Chargers rank in EPA top 10 behind fourth QB in Week 1: The Bolts didn’t dominate like the Chiefs, but there weren’t any clear indications that Los Angeles had regressed either. He consistently posted a top-10 rating in EPA offense, and Justin Herbert finished with the No. 4 PFF of the Week rating among quarterbacks. Price moved from the pre-season line of 2.5/3 to a key number, with the silver line increasing from +35 to 40 (an increase of about 7-8% in the predicted win probability) Consequently.

Trust the pre-season line: This basically suggested a game of pick’em, which we trust more than building in any reaction to Week 1. We think this game plays more like a coin toss, like the teams played last year , and as a fundamental talent level, we believe , indicates. (Note: this game is ripe for live betting – and we’ll get to that later this week).

At the end of the line

Take the juicer side of a toss up game and, in that case, trust the preseason precedents on any Week 1 noise.

· Indianapolis hasn’t allayed fear that 2021’s problems aren’t just Carson Wentz: In a game with little bad luck, the Colts just didn’t dominate what should be a bad Houston team. Top teams are not often outplayed in a normal game script against inferior teams.

Jaguars show loss potential: Meanwhile, despite losing 28-22 at Washington, the Jaguars have shown signs that their offense won’t be a bottom and can score points this season. And The Colts don’t have the receiving depth to take advantage of the Jaguars’ secondary weak link.

Our bullish pre-season outlook on Jacksonville remains: Trevor Lawrence is close to taking, which started to come to fruition in Week 1. It’s an angle we’re willing to bet on going forward, even as early as Week 2.

At the end of the line

Bet on the Jags moneyline in a battle between two teams that we believe are moving in opposite directions.

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